I think that the Democrats are in major trouble. Neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton appears that they will have enough delegates to win the nomination out right. There also seems to be a real need to have ‘real’ primaries in Michigan and Florida. The Democratic Party, by trying to take a stand, shot itself in the feet.
Neither Obama or Clinton are going to bow out. They are both ready and willing to have a fight to the finish. One question is going to be how the supporters of one are going to treat the nomination of the other. Presidential coalitions of voters are often fragile and the margin between parties is often very small. The Democrats might take themselves out of the race unless there is an equitable resolution that both candidates can embrace. That does look like a long way off, however.
The Republicans have nominated John McCain. He received the endorsement of a President who has led us into an unpopular, perhaps unwinnable war, and who has presided over a major recession. Parties in power do not get re-elected during recessions.
At present the answer to the recession is to say that there is no recession. I suspect that sales of bridges in Brooklyn and swamp land in Florida are going to be next...
For John McCain, there are some great difficulties to overcome. While he supports the war and voted for it, it was not McCain or his administration to got us into it. I strongly suspect that had McCain been the President we would not have ended up at war in Iraq as he would not have cooked the intelligence to his liking. But, had we, in fact gone to war, he’d have done it properly and assured that the right nation building was done. The bad news for him is that he is a member of the same party as the President who did all of the above.
John McCain lacks much insight on economics and that will hurt him. Pretending that everything is fine does not work long. People are paying over $3.00 a gallon for gasoline, cannot afford to heat their homes, and cannot afford healthcare.
It is one of those rare times, but of the three who are in the running right now, I find all of them to have some very good qualities and all of them have, I think, the ability to be very capable, effective Presidents. The biggest albatross around their necks is that they are following a truly bad President whose hubris and incompetence are going to plague them for years.